Luca Bindi, LL.M.
Monitoring the Monetary System and the Flow of Capital for Forecasting the Business, Financial and Currency Cycle - and Investing in the Emerging Economies from the Euro Global Reserve Currency - on lucabindi.com
Posts
Stylised facts on the Economy of Ecuador in 2018:
1. Real estate bubble
2. Rising levels of private debt
3. Low salaries with respect to private debt and real estate market values
4. Low interest rates with respect to the intrinsic political uncertainty and default risk of the debtors
5. Adoption of the US$ as the national currency, that veils the underlying pressures on the currency from the international flows of capital
6. Inflow of foreign capital that is attracted by the adoption of the US$ (thus no risk of devaluation of the currency)
7. Asset bubble
8. Financialization of the economy
9. Dependency from the oil industry for about 36% of the national exports
10. Deep interconnection with the US (and its satellites) economy and financial system - if the US economy contracts, so does Ecuador.
Conclusion: in case of a global recession with a reduction of the oil price and contraction of demand from oil from abroad, as Ecuador has renounced to its monetary independence then the so…
1. Real estate bubble
2. Rising levels of private debt
3. Low salaries with respect to private debt and real estate market values
4. Low interest rates with respect to the intrinsic political uncertainty and default risk of the debtors
5. Adoption of the US$ as the national currency, that veils the underlying pressures on the currency from the international flows of capital
6. Inflow of foreign capital that is attracted by the adoption of the US$ (thus no risk of devaluation of the currency)
7. Asset bubble
8. Financialization of the economy
9. Dependency from the oil industry for about 36% of the national exports
10. Deep interconnection with the US (and its satellites) economy and financial system - if the US economy contracts, so does Ecuador.
Conclusion: in case of a global recession with a reduction of the oil price and contraction of demand from oil from abroad, as Ecuador has renounced to its monetary independence then the so…
"China’s economy is not just about providing jobs, goods and services. It is about regime survival for a Chinese Communist Party that faces an existential crisis if it fails to deliver. The overriding imperative of the Chinese leadership is to avoid societal unrest." "Essentially, China is on the horns of a dilemma with no good way out. On the one hand, China has driven growth for the past eight years with excessive credit, wasted infrastructure investment and Ponzi schemes."
Source: Rickards Warns "Prepare For A Chinese Maxi-Devaluation" - Zerohedge
Under Maduro, it is heavily burdensome to start and run a business in Venezuela. Besides the fact of its doubtful profitability:
http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/venezuela#starting-a-business
http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/venezuela#starting-a-business
