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Showing posts from 2017

Euro strengthens against the dollar this year by 13.62% - Bloomberg

Economic Freedom of the World: 2017 Annual Report - Cato Institute

Hong Kong and Singapore retain the top two positions with a score of 8.97 and 8.81 out of 10, respectively. The rest of this year’s top scores are New Zealand, 8.48; Switzerland, 8.44; Ireland, 8.19; the United Kingdom, 8.05; Mauritius, 8.04; Georgia, 8.01; Australia, 7.99; and Estonia, 7.95. The United States, for decades among the top four countries in the index, ranks 11th. The rankings of other large economies in this year’s index are Germany (23rd), South Korea (32nd), Japan (39th), France (52nd), Italy (54th), Mexico (76th), India (95th), Russia (100th), China (112th), and Brazil (137th). The 10 lowest-rated countries are: Iran, Chad, Myanmar, Syria, Libya, Argentina, Algeria, Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, and, lastly, Venezuela. Nations in the top quartile of economic freedom had an average per capita GDP of US$42,463 in 2015, compared to $6,036 for bottom quartile nations. Moreover, the average income of the poorest 10% in the most economically …

Commodity Prices Fell to All-Time Lows Relative to Stock Prices - Bloomberg

Europe relies on Taxes - Statista

Individual and Corporate Income Taxes, 2019 - Prof. Steve Hanke Twitter

The full UN vote - which the US & Israel lost 128-9, with 35 brave abstentions - is here - Glenn Greenwald‏

Some Europeans Have Never Been Outside The EU - Statista

Is It 1999? 2007? Or Both? - Zerohedge

In 1999: Fed was hiking rates as worries about inflationary pressures were present.Economic growth was improving Interest and inflation rates were risingEarnings were rising through the use of “new metrics,” share buybacks and an M&A spree. (Who can forget the market greats of Enron, Worldcom & Global Crossing)Margin-debt / leverage was at the highest level on record. Stock market was beginning to go parabolic as exuberance exploded in a “can’t lose market.”Speculative asset of choice: stocks In 2007: Fed was hiking rates as worries about inflationary pressures were present.Economic growth was improving Interest and inflation rates were risingDebt and leverage provided a massive “buying” binge in real estate creating a “wealth effect” for consumers and high-valuations were justified because of the “Goldilocks economy.” Margin-debt / leverage was at the highest level on record. 

John Hussman forecasts a correction of -64% dello S&P 500 in the coming years - Hussman Funds

At present, the valuation measures that we find best correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns are at the most offensive levels in history, matching or eclipsing the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Even considering the level of interest rates, economic growth, and other factors, the S&P 500 currently stands about 2.8 times the level that we believe the index will revisit over the completion of the current market cycle, implying an interim market loss something on the order of -64%. Moreover, the mostreliablevaluation measures uniformly imply the likelihood of negative total returns in the S&P 500 over the coming 10-12 year period. Source: Navigating the Speculative Id of Wall Street

Druckenmiller on the Zero Interest Rates - Zerohedge

Druckenmiller:If you took the taylor rule a normal interest rate given our economic circumstances would be 4% interestingly. We’re at 1%. In europe, it would be 2%. They’re at minus 40%. In sweden, it would be 3.75%. They’re at minus 50%. That doesn’t even count the bond buying we’re talking. But this is all in the name of this 2% inflation target. Evans:if they’re keeping rates in this country, you know, barely above zero, in other countries, below zero, what are the consequences of all of this? Druckenmiller:well the consequences are huge because we’ve distorted market signals and we’re causing all sorts of what i would call misallocation of resources. Evans: Like bitcoin? or is that unrelated? Druckenmiller:No, it’s not unrelated at all.Bitcoin, art, wine, equities, credit, you name it. everything is one way up and there are huge distortions taking place, and it’s all in the name of this 2% inflation target.And when you get a misallocation of resources, it really hinders gr…

Fitch: $9.7T of Neg Yielding Debt Despite Monetary Normalization

Fitch Ratings-New York-11 December 2017: The total amount of global negative-yielding sovereign debt remains at elevated levels despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) plan to reduce monthly asset purchases amid improving economic fundamentals in the Eurozone, according to Fitch Ratings. As of Dec. 4, 2017, there was $9.7 trillion of negative-yielding sovereign debt outstanding, up from $9.5 trillion on May 31, 2017 and $9.3 trillion one year ago. Fonte: Fitch: $9.7T of Neg Yielding Debt Despite Monetary Normalization

S&P 500 Price-to-Sales Ratio - Investing and Multpl

Rise and Fall of Some Famous Asset Bubbles - Zerohedge

Steinhoff 2025 Bond Price - Zerohedge

After the downgrade- much to the humiliation of the ECB which has to explain why as part of its economic revitalization efforts, i.e.QE it is holding this pile of steaming garbage -Steinhoff bonds extended losses on Friday as the world paid increasingly more attention to the accounting scandal that’s threatening the survival of the global furniture and clothing retailer.
Source: Enron 2.0? ECB, Global Banks On The Hook For $21 Billion In Steinhoff Implosion

ECB Balance Sheet as % of GDP - Zerohedge

Steinhoff's stock slumped as much as 72% Wednesday in Frankfurt, wiping out more than €7 billion ($8.3 billion) in value, before closing 64% lower at €1.08 euros. The stock closed at €5.075 on its first day of trading in the German city in December 2015, when the company moved its primary listing from Johannesburg. But it is what happened to the company's bonds that mattered most: Steinhoff International debt plunged, with €800 million of senior unsecured bonds due in 2025 falling as much as 41 cents on the euro, to 42 cents, before rebounding modestly. What makes the collapse remarkable is that the notes were issued just six months ago, in July, and have a Baa3 investment-grade rating from Moody’s Investors Service.

Source: ECB Caught In Sprawling Scandal After Bonds It Owns Implode

Total US Securities (Debt & Equities) % of GDP - Zerohedge

This puts Total (Debt & Equities) Securities up $1.400 TN during the quarter to a record $86.080 TN. Total Securities inflated $7.003 TN, or 9.1%, over the past year. Total Securities experienced cycle tops of $55.261 TN during Q3 2007 and $36.017 TN to end March 2000. Total Securities ended Q3 2017 at a record 441% of GDP. This outshines the previous cycle peaks of 379% for Q3 2007 and 359% at Q1 2000. One more way to look at post-crisis securities market inflation: Total Securities ended Q3 $30.819 TN, or 56%, higher than the previous cycle peak in Q3 2007. Source: The Biggest Bubble Ever, In Three Charts - Zerohedge

US Equities % of GDP - Zerohedge

Total Equities Securities jumped $1.229 TN during the quarter to a record $43.969 TN, with a one-year gain of $5.923 TN (16.4%). Equities jumped to a record 224% of GDP, compared to 181% at the end of Q3 2007 and 202% to end 1999. Debt Securities gained $171 billion during Q3 to a record $42.385 TN, with a one-year gain of $1.080 TN. At 217% of GDP, Debt Securities remain just below the record 223% recorded in 2013.
Source: The Biggest Bubble Ever, In Three Charts - Zerohedge

S&P 500 Relative Strength Index - Zerohedge

as Albert Edwards indicated this morning,the 14-week RSI on the S&P 500 is above 81 and hasn't been this high since 1995.

Source: SocGen Thinks Emerging Markets Are Breaking Down: Here's Why

Why the Dollar is not Fiat - Armstrong Economics

Only a floating exchange rate systemendsthe fiat. So yes – that means as long as the “paper” dollar floats in value on world markets, it is not actually fiat any more than Bitcoin trading. The term “fiat money” means an arbitrary order or decree declaring the valueto be fixed. The dollar was “fiat” when it was arbitrarily established by Roosevelt at $35 to the ounce of gold. Since 1971, the dollar floats and it is no longer fiat because that is the definition of a fixed arbitrary value. Today. as long as a currency floats, it is not an arbitrary declaration of its value by the government and is therefore not “fiat” as popularly stated by the hard money crew
Source: Why the Dollar is not Fiat - Armstrong Economics