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Showing posts from January, 2018

15-64 YoY Population Growth vs. Wilshire 5000 - Zerohedge

What should already be clear will be obvious for everyone...the federal "debt" being created isn't actually "debt" at all.  It is being created and spent with no intention of ever repaying itand the move back to zero % interest rates (or more likely NIRP) on that "debt" will make clear that it is simply centrally created and centrally directed monetization. 
Source: The Current US Economic Divide Is "The Founding Fathers' Worst Nightmare Come True"

15-64yr/old Annual Pop. Growth vs Housing Starts - Zerohedge

Gross Fed Debt, Annual $ Change in Fed Debt, Annual % Change in Fed Debt - Zerohedge

Housing Starts (% yoy change), FFR%, Deficit (% yoy change), Debt to GDP % - Zerohedge

Simply, when deficit spending accelerates and interest rates are declining, America builds new housing and the broader economy hums.  However, debt grows far faster than the resultant economic activity, and debt to GDP soars (yellow line). Conversely, when deficit spending is decelerating and rates are rising (as they are now), new housing creation decelerates/declines and economic recession is imminent.
Source: The Current US Economic Divide Is "The Founding Fathers' Worst Nightmare Come True"

Visualizing Real Inflation - A Decade Of Grocery Prices For 30 Common Items - Zerohedge

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on Exchange Rates: Clueless - Forbes

As the chart below shows, the evidence fails to support the idea that currency depreciations boost growth. Indeed, he found just the opposite: currency appreciations are associated with stronger growth.
Source: U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on Exchange Rates: Clueless - Forbes

'Perfect storm': Global financial system showing danger signs, says senior OECD economist - Brisbane Times

This time central banks are holding a particularly ferocious tiger by the tail. Global debt ratios have surged by a further 51 percentage points of GDP since the Lehman crisis, reaching a record 327 per cent (IIF data). This is a new phenomenon in economic history and can be tracked to QE liquidity leakage from the West, which flooded East Asia, Latin America, and other emerging markets, with a huge push from China pursuing its own venture.
It has the makings of a perfect storm. At best, the implication is that yields on 10-year Treasuries - the world's benchmark price of money - will spike enough to send tremors through credit markets. The edifice of inflated equity and asset markets is built on the premise that interest rates will remain pinned to the floor. The latest stability report by the US Treasury's Office of Financial Research warned that a 100 basis point rate rise would slash $US1.2 trillion of value from the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, with further losses o…

Ken Rogoff Warns "China Will Be At The Center Of The Next Global Financial Crisis" - Zerohedge

Also, in many parts of Europe interest rates are still negative. Will that leave permanent damages to the economy?
I think that’s nonsense. There isn’t any particular evidence that negative interest rates are leading to permanent damages or that the risk of a crisis are higher. But eventually, we’re going to have another deep recession or financial crisis. Not tomorrow, not soon I hope, but it’s going to happen.And if countries don’t prepare for it it’s going to be much worse than the last time because interest rates are already near zero, quantitative easing is ineffective and helicopter money is a silly idea.That’s why I think thatin the future we will see the major central banks and Treasuries of the world all prepare for having much deeper negative interest rates the next time we have a financial crisis. It’s a much, much more elegant solution than anything that’s been proposed. So I think many countries will prepare for negative interest rates and I would say within the next decad…

Per Capita Disposable Personal Income vs. Wilshire 5000 - Gauging Contemporary Bubbles - Zerohedge

Disposable Personal Income over Wilshire 5000 - Gauging Contemporary Bubbles - Zerohedge

Wilshire 5000 vs. Disposable Personal Income - Gauging Contemporary Bubbles - Zerohedge

S&P & Interest Rates vs. Composite - The Pin That Pricks The Bubble - Zerohedge

Total System Leverage - The Pin That Pricks The Bubble - Zerohedge

Peter Schiff: "We're Near The Endgame... And Trump's Gonna Be The Fall Guy" - Zerohedge