6 years of experience at a
global systemically important financial institution, mostly spent reporting to
the CAO of the international organization and head of Strategy for EMEA. Master
in Economics recognized by the Ministère de la Recherche of Lux; Macroeconomist
with profound understanding of the financial system and global economy; Macroeconomic
analysis of multiple subjects affecting financial markets: The impact on asset
prices of the pandemic stimulus under a lockdown affecting the trade balance,
via a reduction of consumption and imports in the form of a trade war. The
effects of sanctions and environmental policies on imported energy from Russia
and Arab petrostates, also manufacturing goods from Asia. The devaluation of
foreign liabilities via rising nominal GDP for the pandemic fiscal stimulus;
and the asset inflation due to monetary stimulus under lockdown via falling
velocity of money, rising savings and decreasing consumption, depressed
interest rates and US M2 growth above 40%, according to the quantity theory of
money. Rising inflation for the fiscal stimulus via deficit spending when the
economy was opened; consequent tightening of the monetary policy and capital
war against Asia, with reversal of capital flows back to the West, affecting both
asset prices and the export of financial services as a GDP component; full working
capacity in Italian, English, French and Spanish
This coincidence must alert readers that a tempest is brewing on subjects noted: lurking inflation, increasing debt, suppressed interest rates and the shifting of hegemonic power. There are only two important questions in investing that also apply to subjects impacting the future stability of the world — tell me why and tell me when. Plender gives us the “why”, the ever-increasing “intolerable burden” of government debt and suppressed rates leveraging the global financial system. He gives us the tipping point. What we await is “the when”, as in when do we know we have “tipped”. Paul Hackett Madison, NJ, US Letter: Why the geopolitics of international currency choice matters
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