Luca Bindi, LL.M.

  Beyond the duration of the shock, we also need to monitor the impact on central banks and on the macroeconomy. Societe Generale’s Manish Kabra lays out the criteria as follows: An exogenous shock lasts beyond a week, but oil spikes usually peak in three months. That’s the timeline and only two things matter: 1) shock duration and 2) the Fed’s reaction function. Alternatively, Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank suggests that for a risk-off bear market to follow an oil shock, three conditions need to be met: 1. Large and sustained oil price spike: An oil price spike of at least +50-100% that is sustained over several months. 2. Hawkish policy response: The shock forces a sharp, hawkish pivot from central banks to fight the resulting inflation (e.g. 1979, 2022). 3. Broader macro damage: The shock is big enough to tip an already-slowing economy into recession.   Iran Oil Panic: Enough Cool Heads Are Pulling Back From the Brink - Bloomberg  

Iran Oil Panic: Enough Cool Heads Are Pulling Back From the Brink - Bloomberg

   US Consumer Delinquencies Jump to Highest in Almost a Decade - Bloomberg    

   Oil at $110: A Longer War Is Already Here for Markets - Bloomberg

  Oil at $110: A Longer War Is Already Here for Markets - Bloomberg  

  Oil at $110: A Longer War Is Already Here for Markets - Bloomberg

This is a nice story, but it masks real potential harms for retail investors and the economy. For starters, the private markets are not as rosy as the industry claims. While some indices show private equity outperforming public markets, academic research suggests that much of that premium disappears once risk and leverage are properly accounted for. So even if retail investors could replicate the industry’s historical average returns, it’s unclear whether those returns would meaningfully improve their risk-adjusted outcomes compared with public-market exposure. A massive influx of 401(k) money would only drive returns down further — a classic “money chasing deals” problem.    This would be an especially bad time to usher 401(k) investors into private markets and private funds. The market is already saturated with institutional money, and a multi-year bottleneck in deals means that private equity and venture capital funds are struggling to turn their holdings into cash. Al...

 Chart of the Week: Europe’s extra energy tax, FT Unhedged

  “It feels to me much like it did before the 2007-8 crisis: a lot of well-informed people are quietly talking about overvaluations, while still maintaining large exposures and privately praying for a soft landing,” says MIT’s Lucas. Ultimately, the longer markets rise, the further they can eventually drop, and the greater any fallout may be. Deutsche research shows that when the S&P 500 has sold off notably more than 10 per cent, it has tended to coincide with a recession.     Free Lunch: Can recessions be good? - Financial Times  

    Big Tech’s Stranglehold on Profits Is Over as Earnings Growth Broadens - Bloomberg

Global portfolios are diversifying rapidly, looking for high-quality, liquid safe assets. With its robust institutions and unwavering respect for the rule of law, Europe is a premier destination for long-term capital. Yet European markets remain small and fragmented. EU-issued bonds total about €1tn compared to nearly €30tn in outstanding US Treasuries, meaning they are unable to absorb global demand even when combined with the total of triple A and double A-rated sovereign bonds in the euro area.  Since 2025, the euro has appreciated 15 per cent against the US dollar. We are getting a stronger currency without the strategic dividends it should deliver: cheaper financing, deeper liquidity and greater financial stability. Capital is flowing towards Europe, but without a safe asset at scale it has nowhere to anchor. We need to correct this problem, which would make the reform agendas set out by Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi financially feasible. Europe’s best bet for financial sovere...

Britain reported a £248.3bn trade deficit for goods in 2025, £30.5bn more than the previous year and the largest since the collection of comparable data began in 1997, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday.  By contrast, the UK exported £191.8bn more in services than it imported. That marked an increase of £16.4bn from the previous year and the largest on record. Overall, in 2025, the volume of goods and services imports increased by £32bn, or 3.4 per cent, to £959.2bn. Exports increased by £17.9bn, or 2 per cent, to £902.8bn in the year. This means that the overall trade deficit widened by £14.1bn to £56bn last year.   UK trade deficit for goods hits record high in 2025      

Assets under management at EU firms have nearly doubled to more than €20tn over the past decade, as the fund management industry has expanded three times faster than the wider banking sector, according to the blog. ECB economists question Ireland and Luxembourg’s grip on asset managers

Europe needs an “emergency mindset” on deterrence and defence if it is to survive a global disorder where strength matters above all, Denmark’s prime minister has warned.  Mette Frederiksen, who has been thrust by the Greenland crisis to the centre of a rupturing transatlantic alliance, told the FT that “a Europe that is not able and willing to protect itself is going to die at some point”.  “The old world will not come back. I am pretty sure about that,” she added. “Unfortunately, strength is one of the weapons that is useful in this new world disorder and therefore Europe has to be strong enough.” Europe needs ‘emergency mindset’ to survive, warns Danish PM    

Intellectually, at least, today’s Warsh appears the same as the one of 2010. In his IMF lecture delivered in April 2025, he stressed not only the Fed’s “institutional drift”, but also its recent “failure to satisfy an essential part of its statutory remit, price stability. It has also contributed to an explosion of federal spending. And the Fed’s outsized role and underperformance have weakened the important and worthy case for monetary policy independence.” He made other criticisms, the most pointed being that “the Fed has been the most important buyer of US Treasury debt — and other liabilities backed by the US government — since 2008”. He asserts: “Fiscal dominance — where the nation’s debts constrain monetary policymakers — was long thought by economists to be a possible end-state. My view is that monetary dominance — where the central bank becomes the ultimate arbiter of fiscal policy — is the clearer and more present danger.” For Warsh, then, easy money is the road to ruin.  ...

The strengthening of the euro could proceed together with global fragmentation and protectionism, also an energy crisis that would raise inflation expectations, default and term premiums namely yields on the longer end of the curve - that would dramatically hit asset prices. In that case restrictions to domestic consumption, similarly to a pandemic lockdown, would be helpful to contain the financial damage.    Implications of a stronger Euro currency | Luca Bindi on Linkedin

    Gold and silver extend declines after historic slump  

  So there are real tensions and questions that accompany Trump’s pick of Warsh. If his nomination is confirmed by the Senate, will the new Fed chair be able to persuade the rest of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet just weeks after they stopped quantitative tightening? If he does succeed, will this steepen the US yield curve, raising the price of long-term government borrowing while lowering short-term debt financing costs? Will the conviction of a productivity miracle survive contact with a messy real world for much longer? And how will the new Fed chair’s views change when the data is less than obliging as it will be on many occasions?   Kevin Warsh will pivot Fed to conviction economics

And financial markets might not co-operate with Warsh’s views. The problem with lowering the federal funds rate further from here, when the economy is already growing rapidly, is that it would increase the risk of financial instability, specifically a melt-up in the stock market that could be followed by a meltdown. Lowering the federal funds rate would further weaken the dollar, potentially reviving inflation and pushing bond yields higher. Furthermore, at his likely first meeting as FOMC chair on June 16-17, the majority of Warsh’s colleagues on the committee might not co-operate in backing lower interest rates if inflation remains persistently above the Fed’s 2.0 per cent target. The US economy is likely to be booming then thanks to the fiscal stimulus provided by higher tax refunds in the coming months, resulting from legislation last year. Warsh could be one of the few dovish dissenters at his first FOMC meeting. Markets are set to test Warsh 

    #markets #investing #currencies | Jonathan Baird,CFA

Kevin Warsh says he still bears the scars from “the darkest days” of the 2008 financial crisis.  Then a newly appointed Federal Reserve governor, Warsh acted as a vital conduit between the central bank and Wall Street as the financial system and the US economy confronted their gravest threat since the Great Depression.   “He brought a lot of real experience, he knew these people on Wall Street — he knew the difference between when they were arguing their book and when they were bringing us good information — and that was very, very valuable,” said Don Kohn, the former Fed vice-chair who had an office next door to Warsh.  It is a view echoed by Lloyd Blankfein, who led Goldman Sachs during the crisis. “Kevin was unflappable at chaotic moments,” he recalled, pointing to an even temperament and willingness to engage. Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair nominee forged by the 2008 financial crisis

Donald Trump’s threat to annex Greenland raised the once unthinkable prospect that the US could use its military to seize territory from Denmark — a Nato ally. Several European nations responded by dispatching troops to the island — ostensibly as part of an exercise to bolster Arctic security. Trump’s counter reaction was to accuse the European nations involved — which include France, Germany and the UK — of playing a “very dangerous game”.  The US president has said that all these countries will be hit with tariffs of 10 per cent at the beginning of February, rising to 25 per cent in June. So what happens now? A wide range of outcomes is conceivable. At the more benign end, it is possible that Trump’s tariff threats will disappear into the mist. The US president has made empty tariff threats before — including a promise to impose 100 per cent levies on films made outside America and a 200 per cent tariff on champagne. Just last week, he was threatening to impose a 25 per cent tar...

Mercantilism dominated European thinking on international economic policy in the 17th and 18th centuries. Mercantilists’ underlying belief was that international economic policy is primarily a tool of state power. Since power, unlike prosperity, is relative, mercantilists think of international economic engagement as “zero sum”: you win, I lose. Mercantilists also treasure domestic production and love trade surpluses and protection against imports. Adam Smith, wrote The Wealth of Nations in the 18th century as an argument in favour of free trade, against just such mercantilism.   Thus, one could imagine an effort (albeit not under Trump) to design a new multilateral economic treaty. In the process, one could even include something John Maynard Keynes wanted to achieve at Bretton Woods, namely, a way to combat huge structural trade surpluses. These, he believed, imposed ruinous constraints upon others. In the 1940s he could not persuade the US, then a huge surplus country. Today, ...

What changed on October 29? There was a Federal Reserve meeting that day, and the US central bank cut interest rates as expected, but signalled a cut at the next meeting was unlikely, which took some of the air out of rate-sensitive tech stocks’ sails. Third-quarter corporate earnings reports that were rolling in around that time were generally strong and anticipation of economic expansion in 2026 was taking hold — supporting economically sensitive cyclical value stocks.  Most importantly, though, October 29 was when investor enthusiasm for heavy investment in AI peaked and began to fall. Meta reported earnings that day, and announced a big increase in spending. Investors hated it and the stock tumbled. In the six weeks since, Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle and Broadcom have fallen significantly. The loss of speculative appetite has extended beyond AI. High-flyers such as Coinbase and Robinhood have been hit hard too. This is a very different world than the one we were in just a few mon...

In other words: because central banks protected markets from the consequences of reckless government spending and correspondingly high leverage in the financial system, government spending and financial leverage have increased further. The system is now so precarious, and the consequences of a collapse so great, that the Fed has no choice but to intervene whenever the markets start to twitch. The moral hazard only gets worse; that’s the trap.  This view is most relevant in the context of overnight borrowing markets (as Unhedged discussed here and here). The “ample reserves” regime referred to above is the amount of financial system liquidity that allows the Fed to control overnight rates despite the upward pressure on those rates from the massive amount of leverage in the system. But it is sometimes hard to distinguish controlling short-term interest rates, which is monetary policy, from suppressing volatility by cramming cash into the system because otherwise the whole overleverag...

Donald Trump’s “unpredictable” policies have prompted bond giant Pimco to diversify away from US assets, as Wall Street frets over the long-term consequences of the president’s attacks on the Federal Reserve. “It’s important to appreciate that this is an administration that’s quite unpredictable,” Ivascyn said. “What are we doing about that? We’re diversifying . . . We do think we’re in a multiyear period of some diversification away from US assets.” “Although on the surface it may be tempting to influence the Fed to bring rates lower . . . aggressive cutting in the face of strong growth and elevated inflation will likely lead to higher long-term rates.”   Donald Trump’s ‘unpredictable’ policies to fuel multiyear shift from US, Pimco says

    Can Europe still afford its generous state pensions?

“Anything chips away at that is probably not a great idea,” Dimon told reporters on a call for JPMorgan Chase’s fourth-quarter results. “And in my view, it will have the reverse consequence. It will raise inflation expectations and probably increase rates over time.”   Jamie Dimon warns Trump administration’s attacks on Fed could boost inflation

China blamed the US for growing global trade imbalances as the world’s second-biggest economy reported a record full-year trade surplus of $1.2tn for 2025 despite President Donald Trump’s trade war.  The huge surplus will inflame global trading tensions, particularly with the EU and large developing countries that are already anxious their industries could be overwhelmed by Chinese imports.     China blames US for trade imbalances as surplus hits record $1.2tn

Sharp interest rate cuts when inflation is already running significantly above its 2 per cent target would fuel inflation, demoralise investors and ignite a rush out of dollar assets. Trump would presumably welcome a modestly weaker dollar, on the grounds that this would boost US exports. But the exchange-rate effect of this justice department initiative, if it succeeds, would be anything but modest. It would be a dollar crash. It is not a coincidence that every leading international and reserve currency of the past 800 years or so has been the currency of a political democracy or republic, where investors had a voice and where currency issuance was at least partially insulated from the whims of the executive. What has been true of the dollar was true of Britain and sterling in the 19th century, the Dutch Republic and the guilder in the 17th and 18th centuries, Venice and the ducat in the 16th century, and Florence and the florin in the 14th and 15th centuries. The consequen...

  History rhymes. As Rana Foroohar points out in her latest column, over the past week, we’ve seen many analogies drawn between the Monroe Doctrine and US President Donald Trump’s new imperialism. But she says what’s happening in Venezuela today, and what may yet happen in Greenland, or in Ukraine or Taiwan (where Russia and China could well take counter-action as a response to what the White House is doing), isn’t only about the protection of America’s backyard, as in the Monroe Doctrine. “It is about a messier and much more global conflict. For this reason, the historical comparison I’ve been thinking about lately is the “great game” between Russia and Britain in the 19th century,” Rana writes.    

    Have we reached a tipping point on public debt?  

This coincidence must alert readers that a tempest is brewing on subjects noted: lurking inflation, increasing debt, suppressed interest rates and the shifting of hegemonic power.  There are only two important questions in investing that also apply to subjects impacting the future stability of the world — tell me why and tell me when.  Plender gives us the “why”, the ever-increasing “intolerable burden” of government debt and suppressed rates leveraging the global financial system. He gives us the tipping point.  What we await is “the when”, as in when do we know we have “tipped”.  Paul Hackett Madison,  NJ, US    Letter: Why the geopolitics of international currency choice matters

  Don’t be fooled — everything has changed for the global economy — Gita Gopinath Venezuela and the trouble with the Donroe doctrine — Gideon Rachman Threatening to strip someone of their citizenship is no joke — Stephen Bush Trump really wants Greenland — Edward Luce Economists are facing a recession — Soumaya Keynes

Darren Woods, chief executive of the biggest US oil major, struck a sceptical tone at a televised White House gathering of energy bosses on Friday — even as some other companies expressed optimism about the potential to tap the world’s biggest oil reserves.   “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs, frameworks in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestable,” Woods told Trump in a meeting that included many of America’s most prominent energy executives and some of the president’s top lieutenants.   “Significant changes have to be made to those commercial frameworks, the legal system, there has to be durable investment protections, and there has to be change to the hydrocarbon laws in the country.”   Woods said the company’s assets in Venezuela had been seized twice since Exxon first entered the country in the 1940s.   US oil giant ExxonMobil tells Donald Trump Venezuela is ‘uninvestable’      

. . . each bank will be asked to identify the most relevant geopolitical risk events that could lead to at least a 300-basis point depletion in its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital. In addition to reporting on how the geopolitical risk scenario would affect their solvency positions, banks will also be asked to provide information about how it may affect their liquidity and funding conditions.   The ECB gets speculative  

ECB to assess 110 directly supervised banks on the management of geopolitical risk Banks to define scenario that would lead to pre-determined outcome of at least 300 basis point depletion in CET1 Aggregate results to be communicated in summer 2026 ECB to assess banks’ stress testing capabilities to capture geopolitical risk    

  Chart of the Week: America’s current account woes Tim Baker at Deutsche Bank argues the US’s larger current account deficit relative to other major economies reflects an expensive dollar. But President Donald Trump’s crusade to weaken the dollar and reduce the US’s trade deficit could be a double-edged sword.   “The Trump administration’s effort to narrow the US trade deficit means fewer dollars will flow overseas, reducing the need for those funds to be recycled back into US securities,” notes Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman. Net portfolio inflows, which have come in at nearly 2 per cent of GDP in the past year, have helped fund the current account deficit, Baker notes.    

  Bondi attacks show old hatreds are flourishing again — Stephen Bush The worried investor’s guide to 2026 — Katie Martin We urgently need to rebalance EU-China relations — Emmanuel Macron The argument Iranians have in private — Najmeh Bozorgmehr The hard politics of climate overshoot — Pilita Clark

It is a factor behind a profound shift in the global financial system: the disappearance of China’s current-account surplus. Source: China’s current-account surplus has vanished - The Economist

Source: Just 4 Trading Days Until The Longest Bull Market Of All Time: What Happens Then - Zerohedge

Source: "Get Prepared" For The Chaos To Come, Snyder Fears Global Financial Bear Market Looms - ZeroHedge

Stylised facts on the Economy of Ecuador in 2018: 1. Real estate bubble 2. Rising levels of private debt 3. Low salaries with respect to private debt and real estate market values 4. Low interest rates with respect to the intrinsic political uncertainty and default risk of the debtors 5. Adoption of the US$ as the national currency, that veils the underlying pressures on the currency from the international flows of capital 6. Inflow of foreign capital that is attracted by the adoption of the US$ (thus no risk of devaluation of the currency) 7. Asset bubble 8. Financialization of the economy 9. Dependency from the oil industry for about 36% of the national exports 10. Deep interconnection with  the US (and its satellites) economy and financial system - if the US economy contracts, so does Ecuador. Conclusion: in case of a global recession with a reduction of the oil price and contraction of demand from oil from abroad, as Ecuador has renounced to its monetary independe...

"China’s economy is not just about providing jobs, goods and services. It is about regime survival for a Chinese Communist Party that faces an existential crisis if it fails to deliver. The overriding imperative of the Chinese leadership is to avoid societal unrest."  " Essentially, China is on the horns of a dilemma with no good way out. On the one hand, China has driven growth for the past eight years with excessive credit, wasted infrastructure investment and Ponzi schemes. " Source:  Rickards Warns "Prepare For A Chinese Maxi-Devaluation" - Zerohedge

  Source:  Full ECB Preview And Draghi Scenario Analysis - Zerohedge

  Source:  Capitalism: Why Chile Is So Much Richer Than Venezuela - Zerohedge

Source: Prof. Steve Hanke Twitter

  Source: Dolar Today Twitter

Source: Dolar Today