Luca Bindi, LL.M.

In other words,   one would have to go back to some time in early 1929 to be looking at the kind of returns that a balanced "60/40" portfolio is generating today.    In fact, the current period of staggering returns without a 10% total drawdown is now 8.7 years. How long was the comparable period in the 1928s? 9.1 years. Which means that if history is any guide, the second great depression is just around the corner.   Source: Goldman: The Last Time This Happened Was Just Months Before The Start Of The Great Depression

Source: "Excessive Pockets Of Gluttony": Meet PA's Public Pensioners Making $500,000 A Year Courtesy Of Taxpayers

Source: "It’s All One Single, Giant $22 Trillion Position": How Market Risk Became Systemic Risk

Source: London House Prices Reach Record Unaffordability

Source: Ultra-Easy Money: Digging the Hole Deeper?

This chart is straightforward: It’s outstanding credit as a percentage of GDP. Broadly speaking, this is a measure of how leveraged the US economy is.   It was in a sedate 130%–170% range as the economy industrialized in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. It popped higher in the 1920s and 1930s before settling down again. Then came the 1980s. Credit jumped above 200% of GDP and has never looked back. It climbed steadily until 2009 and now hovers over 350%. Anyone questioning whether financial markets are in a bubble should consider what we witnessed in 2017: A painting (which may be fake) sold for $450 million. Bitcoin (which may be worthless) soared nearly 700% from $952 to ~$8000. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank bought $2 trillion of assets. Global debt rose above $225 trillion to more than 324% of global GDP. US corporations sold a record $1.75 trillion in bonds. European high-yield bonds traded at a yield under 2%. Argentina, a serial default...